Contrary to popular belief (which are usually wrong in gambling and build many casinos) when there is a coaching mismatch, it is not magnified the more time there is to prepare, but the less time. The huge edge Bill Belichick has over Dan Campbell shines in a short week. Also the spike Miami god from firing Joe Philbin has worn off.

Some backdoor and meaningless scores belie how much the Pats have dominated teams this year. Miami is all fat and happy but now have raised expectations. This is where they have come up short so many times before. Playing the best team on the road in a short week is too much for a virgin coach to handle.