South Alabama has lost a lot of production this season, especially on defense and it shows in the boxscore. Their defense was bad versus North Texas, allowing them to put 52 points on them. Their secondary also got shredded in that game. They played a little better versus Ohio but they still put up 27 points on them. They face Appalachian State, a team that has dominated them in the past. The Mountaineers usually have the better talent and defense between the two and even though that defense didn’t show up against Clemson, they played a gritter game against East Carolina, pulling the win out on the road. Back at home on a shorter week hurts the Jaguars as this is also a look ahead spot to LSU for them. Boone is a tough place to get a win and they will struggle in this game as App. States defense shows up. The Mountaineers are one of the contenders for the title in the Sun Belt and they will want to make sure at home that they look sharp. The Jaguars as an underdog of 7 points or less are 6-14 against the spread since 1992 and off a home win of 17 points or more, they are 3-15 against the spread. The Mountaineers are 21-10 against the spread versus good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards per game. Lay the points with Appalachian State.

Best bet: lay the points with Appalachian State.