Illinois already has succeeded in winning more games in the NCAA Tournament, with two victories, than it did during the previous three seasons it was in the tournament.

But I don't see the Illini reaching three wins in their Thursday East Regional semifinal matchup against Iowa State.

Defense trumps offense. Illinois ranks 12th in scoring, but 214th defensively and 259th in 3-point defense. Terrence Shannon Jr. has carried Illinois in the tournament averaging 31.6 points.

Iowa State averages a respectable 75.7 points a game, but has the fifth-ranked defense in the country. If you judge by Ken Pom's rating then the Cyclones are the best defensive team. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger may be the best defensive coach in the nation. He's going to be very dangerous given extra preparation time.

Look for the Cyclones to slow down and frustrate Shannon and the Illini with how well they double-team and rotate their defense. Iowa State has scoring depth. The Illini heavily rely on Shannon.

Illinois did well to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini, though, were fortunate to have avoided Purdue and Michigan State. They beat Ohio State, which didn't make the NCAA Tournament, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Those last two teams lost by double-digits in their first-round NCAA Tourney games.

Iowa State won the Big 12 Conference Tournament beating Houston, the No. 2 ranked team in the country, 69-41, in the finals. The Cyclones also own victories Baylor and BYU during the past three weeks. I consider the Big 12 to be the toughest conference in the country.