Situation and the coaching matchup are two key reasons why I like California to cover - if not beat - Miami. Another reason is Cal's star running back Jaydn Ott should find cracks against a Miami defense that permitted 206 rushing yards to Virginia Tech last week.

Now the Hurricanes have to fly cross-country to play a rested California team that had a bye last week. The Golden Bears are 3-1, including a win against Auburn. Cal lost to Florida State in its last game, but outgained the Seminoles by 126 yards. The Golden Bears also outgained Auburn by 46 yards. 

Miami's Cam Ward is one of the better QB's in college football. Cal has the defense to stop him, though. The Golden Bears rank 12th in fewest points giving up 12.9 per game and surrender the 23rd fewest yards. They also lead the nation in takeaways with 10. 

Cal coach Justin Wilcox is at his finest in an underdog role, especially as a home 'dog where the Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS with two straight-up wins. As a double-digit underdog, Wilcox's Golden Bears are 14-7 ATS. 

Miami's Mario Cristobal is one of my least favorite coaches from a point spread perspective. The Hurricanes are 10-18 ATS under Cristobal.