Forget Nevada losing 16 of 20 games the past two seasons. The Wolf Pack are much better coached under Jeff Choate. They've proven themselves beating Troy on the road as a 7 1/2-point underdog and losing by only five points to SMU as a 27-point 'dog.

Minnesota is not the right team to lay a big number, especially against a physical opponent such as Nevada.

Max Brosmer is a better passer than previous P.J. Fleck quarterbacks at Minnesota, but the Gophers still are way too top-heavy running the ball. Minnesota is averaging 35.5 rushing attempts per game. The Gophers rank 104th in rushing yards per game. They are averaging a meager 2.7 yards per carry. Nevada has a better than average rush defense giving up 3.7 yards per carry.

These are two run-oriented, conservative teams. That's a good mix when taking this big of an underdog.