Paul Skenes has a 3.13 ERA in his last five starts after compiling a 1.90 ERA during his first 11 big league starts. His fastball has ticked down a little. But Skenes is still a dominant pitcher. Opponents are batting .198 against him. He has a 121-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Only five teams strikeout more than the Reds.

I remain fully confident in Skenes.

Pittsburgh is average against lefty pitching. That's enough for the Pirates' offense to do the job against southpaw Nick Lodolo. He's faded badly after returning from an injured list stint last month. Lodolo has a 7.30 ERA and 1.46 WHIP during his last eight starts spanning 40 2/3 innings.

The oddsmaker opened this game higher. So I'm glad to get a discount with the lay price going down.