Troy is 7-1 in its last eight games. However, that one defeat came at home to Arkansas State, 82-71, last Thursday. 

The Trojans were 6 1/2-point favorites in that matchup. Now, a week later, they opened as underdogs to Arkansas State. 

I'm not buying that. It's not just rapid revenge for Troy. The Trojans are the superior team. Troy is 18-9 and 11-3 in the Sun Belt Conference, tied for second one game behind Appalachian State. Arkansas State is 13-4 overall and 8-6 in the Sun Belt. 

Both teams average 79 points. The difference comes on defense. Troy gives up 69.4 points a game. Arkansas State permits 78.4 points per game, which ranks 334th. The Red Wolves also are 300th in defensive field goal percentage. 

Don't expect Troy to have a second straight off-shooting game against Arkansas State. So I'll take the points with the superior team.