Florida has failed to cover in its three true road games. I see that trend continuing here. LSU is coming on while the Gators are racked by injuries to their skill positions, offensive line and at middle linebacker.

The Gators rank 95th in yards gained per game and are 82nd in scoring. I don't put much stock in Austin Appleby. Look for the Tigers to wear down the Gators with the running of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice.

Ed Orgeron has been a coaching upgrade on Les Miles. The Tigers have gone 4-1 SU and ATS under Orgeron with their lone loss occurring to Alabama in a 10-0 loss.

During the last two weeks, both teams played on the road against Arkansas. LSU beat the Razorbacks, 38-10, while Florida lost to Arkansas, 31-10.

Florida is a beat-up team while LSU is who we thought they were. They just needed to change coaches.