I'm not sure if the Colts would win this game if they were healthy - which they are not. Indy, in fact, is heavily banged-up. Out are the Colts' best defensive back, Vontae Davis, best defensive lineman, Henry Anderson, and one of their few decent offensive linemen left guard Jake Mewhort.

The oddsmaker has devalued Detroit too much because of the retirement of Calvin Johnson.

Matthew Stafford was one of the hottest quarterbacks during the second half of the season last year with the second-highest passer rating during the last eight games and a 19-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that span. If not for an Aaron Rodgers' Hail Mary touchdown pass the Lions would have gone 7-1 in their last eight games.

Johnson, of course, will be missed but the Lions still have three excellent wide receivers in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and a still effective Anquan Boldin. The Colts have two new cornerbacks, over-the-hill veteran Antonio Cromartie and rookie T.J. Green. The Colts aren't going to be able to stop the Lions' passing game while the Colts may not be able to keep up with their beat up offensive line.