Rich Hill has turned into a great pitcher. But tell me, do you care to lay nearly 3-to-1 in this game when Hill might get pulled after one pitch due to his persistent blister problems?

I doubt that happens. Still, Hill has thrown more than five pitches in a game just once since July 7. He was scratched from his last start this past Tuesday against the Rockies due to a rain delay and tenderness from a blister on his pitching hand.

There is far more injury risk backing Hill than any other pitcher. Because of this outrageous price and my belief San Diego starter Luis Perdomo is underrated, I'm going to throw a token on the Padres.

Perdomo is a promising rookie whose strength is keeping the ball on the ground. He has the highest ground ball rate in the National League and is off two impressive outings holding the Diamondbacks and Marlins to a combined one run on 11 hits in 16 innings.

San Diego is a .500 road club. The Padres rank 13th in runs scored on the road compared to rating 23rd in runs scored at home. Hill is 0-3 lifetime against the Padres with an 8.16 ERA in three career starts.

If the Padres happen to pull the upset, I'll order my pizza with all the toppings.