PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's Game of the Year
(MLB) Arizona vs. San Diego,
Money Line: -135.00 Arizona (Away)
Result: Loss
Money Line: -135.00 Arizona (Away)
Result: Loss
I love the Diamondbacks here because the price doesn't reflect what a huge starting pitching edge Arizona has with Zack Greinke facing Jarred Cosart.
Perhaps the oddsmaker is influenced by Greinke's last start, which could have been the worst of his career. He surrendered nine earned runs on 10 hits in less than two innings this past Sunday. That was against the Red Sox, the best offensive team in baseball. Greinke had won nine consecutive decisions until that game.
I see the prideful Greinke coming back strong here against a much weaker opponent. The numbers certainly favor Greinke in a big way. His teams are 30-7 during the past two years for a winning percentage of 81 percent. Discount that Red Sox debacle and Greinke's road ERA is 2.14 this season and Arizona is 8-0 in his last eight road outings.
Greinke has a strong history, too, against San Diego with a 7-1 career mark and 1.91 ERA in 14 starts.
Cosart probably shouldn't even be in a big league rotation. He has a 5.03 ERA and has more walks than strikeouts. Cosart began the season with the Marlins, who demoted him after he posted a 5.95 ERA in four starts. Cosart didn't fare that much better in the minors with a 4.09 ERA and a losing record.
The desperate Padres picked him up. Cosart actually pitched well in his last start. So that may be a reason why this line is much lower than I anticipated. I can't see Cosart putting together back-to-back strong performances. The Diamondbacks are swinging hot bats scoring 36 runs in their last four games.
The Diamondbacks have won five of the past eight times at Petco Park and are two games under .500 on the road while the Padres are two games below .500 at home.
Perhaps the oddsmaker is influenced by Greinke's last start, which could have been the worst of his career. He surrendered nine earned runs on 10 hits in less than two innings this past Sunday. That was against the Red Sox, the best offensive team in baseball. Greinke had won nine consecutive decisions until that game.
I see the prideful Greinke coming back strong here against a much weaker opponent. The numbers certainly favor Greinke in a big way. His teams are 30-7 during the past two years for a winning percentage of 81 percent. Discount that Red Sox debacle and Greinke's road ERA is 2.14 this season and Arizona is 8-0 in his last eight road outings.
Greinke has a strong history, too, against San Diego with a 7-1 career mark and 1.91 ERA in 14 starts.
Cosart probably shouldn't even be in a big league rotation. He has a 5.03 ERA and has more walks than strikeouts. Cosart began the season with the Marlins, who demoted him after he posted a 5.95 ERA in four starts. Cosart didn't fare that much better in the minors with a 4.09 ERA and a losing record.
The desperate Padres picked him up. Cosart actually pitched well in his last start. So that may be a reason why this line is much lower than I anticipated. I can't see Cosart putting together back-to-back strong performances. The Diamondbacks are swinging hot bats scoring 36 runs in their last four games.
The Diamondbacks have won five of the past eight times at Petco Park and are two games under .500 on the road while the Padres are two games below .500 at home.
