I understand the Rays are 3-19 in their last 22 games. But I don't care if they were 0-22. The oddsmaker opened Boston - with Sean O'Sullivan on the mound - a favorite against Chris Archer. That's enough for me to take Tampa Bay.

Archer is displaying signs of finally coming around working 5 2/3 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against the Tigers in his last start this past Sunday. The Rays have their closer, Alex Colome, back, too. Colome has been outstanding with a 1.71 ERA and 19 saves.

The Rays have beaten Boston seven of the past nine times and are 5-1 in their last six games at Fenway Park.

But fading O'Sullivan is my main handicapping factor. The journeyman, with a career-mark of 13-23 and 5.99 ERA, shouldn't be in a big league rotation. But the Red Sox are desperate to shore up their back end so O'Sullivan is getting another chance.