Pittsburgh has been playing tight defense lately. If you discount a 5-4 shootout win against Buffalo two games ago, the Penguins are giving up an average of 2.1 goals during their last eight games. The Penguins have a good under history when skating against Metropolitan opponents with the under coming in at 18-8-7.

From the Islanders' viewpoint, I see the defense closing ranks and putting forth a strong effort after losing star defenseman Travis Harmonic. The Islanders have a strong under bias, too, when playing against Metropolitan foes. The under is 18-7-3 during the past 28 times.

An early start time is another factor why there should be less than six goals scored.