The total on this Final Four matchup opened 150. Now look where it is at. Is the oddsmaker that far off? He shouldn't be. Not in a game of this magnitude. There are certainly key factors why the over is the right play besides what has become excellent line value now.

There of course is the Buddy Hield factor. He's on fire averaging 29.3 points per game on 56.7 percent shooting from the floor during the tournament. The Sooners have other capable scorers if Villanova pays too much attention to slow downing Hield, who very well could be the best collegiate player this season.

The Wildcats have balanced scoring. They can hit 3-pointers and are excellent from the free throw line, too. If you discount the Kansas game, Villanova is averaging 83 points in the tournament while Oklahoma puts up 81 points per game doing against solid defensive opponents Texas A&M, Oregon and Cal State Bakersfield. The Sooners averaged more than 80 points per game during the regular season. Only 20 teams in the nation averaged more than Oklahoma. The Wildcats scored 70 or more points in 81 percent of their games this season.

Sometimes the marketplace is right. But they've overthought this matchup. The total is too low now.