PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's Friday Annihilator
(NCAAB) Valparaiso vs. Oakland,
Point Spread: 2.50 | -107.00 Oakland (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: 2.50 | -107.00 Oakland (Home)
Result: Loss
Valparaiso and Oakland were picked to be the top two teams in the Horizon League this season in the preseason poll. Now they get together in this nationally televised matchup on ESPN2.
Valparaiso plays great defense. Oakland has the sixth-best offense in the country averaging 86.9 points a game. It's clearly a case of contrasting styles. So which way to turn?
Examining the matchup the clear answer is Oakland.
First let's look at history. The Grizzlies are home. That's huge. The home team has won the past five times in the series. Oakland also is 5-1 against the Crusader at home with the lone defeat during this time frame occurring back in 2010. The Grizzlies have covered 75 percent of their last 17 home contests going 12-4-1 ATS.
Sticking with history, the Grizzlies also have covered in their last six games versus Valparaiso. Yet, the Crusaders opened as road chalk. Valparaiso has been a road favorite in its last three lined away matchups. They have failed to cover each time losing straight-up to Belmont and Ball State while not covering versus Indiana State.
The Crusaders have won 20 in a row at home. They are not nearly so dominant on the road just 3-3 straight-up versus board opponents.
Oakland is going to be especially motivated following a shocking 100-98 home loss to Youngstown State in its last game this past Monday. The Grizzlies were 17-point favorites in that game. They lost on a tip-in at the buzzer perhaps caught looking ahead to this matchup.
That defeat may have factored in the linesmaker opening Valparaiso a road favorite. Oakland, though, has too much offense at home for the Crusaders led by the best player in the Horizon League, Kahil Fielder. The junior guard ranks third in the nation in scoring at 26.1 points and is No. 1 in assists at 9.2. The Grizzlies have six players that average 9.5 points or more. Valparaiso, by comparison, only has two players who average more than 11 points a game.
The Grizzlies have covered 11 of their past 16 Horizon League games and are battled tested having had non-conference games versus Colorado State, Georgia, Toledo, Washington, Michigan State and Virginia. None of these games were at home yet the Grizzlies upset Washington and Toledo while taking Michigan State to overtime. Oakland covered all of these games, including playing Colorado State, Georgia and Virginia tough.
Now the Grizzlies get their biggest home game of the season off a shocking upset loss. I'll take them in this spot. Getting points is a nice bonus.
Valparaiso plays great defense. Oakland has the sixth-best offense in the country averaging 86.9 points a game. It's clearly a case of contrasting styles. So which way to turn?
Examining the matchup the clear answer is Oakland.
First let's look at history. The Grizzlies are home. That's huge. The home team has won the past five times in the series. Oakland also is 5-1 against the Crusader at home with the lone defeat during this time frame occurring back in 2010. The Grizzlies have covered 75 percent of their last 17 home contests going 12-4-1 ATS.
Sticking with history, the Grizzlies also have covered in their last six games versus Valparaiso. Yet, the Crusaders opened as road chalk. Valparaiso has been a road favorite in its last three lined away matchups. They have failed to cover each time losing straight-up to Belmont and Ball State while not covering versus Indiana State.
The Crusaders have won 20 in a row at home. They are not nearly so dominant on the road just 3-3 straight-up versus board opponents.
Oakland is going to be especially motivated following a shocking 100-98 home loss to Youngstown State in its last game this past Monday. The Grizzlies were 17-point favorites in that game. They lost on a tip-in at the buzzer perhaps caught looking ahead to this matchup.
That defeat may have factored in the linesmaker opening Valparaiso a road favorite. Oakland, though, has too much offense at home for the Crusaders led by the best player in the Horizon League, Kahil Fielder. The junior guard ranks third in the nation in scoring at 26.1 points and is No. 1 in assists at 9.2. The Grizzlies have six players that average 9.5 points or more. Valparaiso, by comparison, only has two players who average more than 11 points a game.
The Grizzlies have covered 11 of their past 16 Horizon League games and are battled tested having had non-conference games versus Colorado State, Georgia, Toledo, Washington, Michigan State and Virginia. None of these games were at home yet the Grizzlies upset Washington and Toledo while taking Michigan State to overtime. Oakland covered all of these games, including playing Colorado State, Georgia and Virginia tough.
Now the Grizzlies get their biggest home game of the season off a shocking upset loss. I'll take them in this spot. Getting points is a nice bonus.
