Cincinnati has beaten and covered against Baltimore each of the past three seasons at home. Now John Harbaugh's Ravens have to go into Cincinnati in worst shape than they've ever been.

Physically, the Ravens are a wreck with close to 20 players on injured reserve, including all of their key skill position players, best offensive lineman and top pass rusher. Marvin Lewis, by contrast, has maybe his best Bengals team. Cincinnati leads the NFL in scoring defense giving up 17.5 points a game and ranks fourth in scoring averaging 26.3 points per game. Unlike the Ravens, the Bengals are healthy.

A.J. McCarron is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. He's aided by having tremendous weapons. A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones have combined for 25 touchdown receptions. Eifert is expected to play after missing last week. McCarron has been more comfortable going against secondaries that use man-to-man coverage rather than zone. McCarron's comfort area is making short, safe outside throws, which zones are more suited to stop. The Ravens, however, are not a good zone defense. Green has put up monster numbers on the Ravens during his last four games against them: 28 receptions, 570 yards and five touchdowns.

Look for McCarron to have his finest NFL performance going from facing Denver's elite defense on the road to taking on a decimated Ravens defense.

The Ravens' backup skill position talent can't match Cincinnati's. Ryan Mallet is a proven stiff. He does deserve credit for helping the Ravens upset Pittsburgh last week. Cincinnati's defense is at a higher level than the Steelers, tied for third in interceptions with 19 and tied for fourth in sacks with 41. The Bengals also have a plus nine turnover ratio, fourth-best in the NFL.

Baltimore needs to establish a ground attack to give Mallet a chance. I don't see that happening either. The Bengals rank seventh in run defense. The Ravens are down to backup runners. Baltimore rushed for just 36 yards on 18 attempts when it lost 28-24 at home to the Bengals in Week 3. That was the Ravens' second-lowest rush total of the season. The Ravens had Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett and Steve Smith for that game.

Before beating Pittsburgh last week, the Ravens had lost their three previous games falling to Miami on the road by two points and then getting buried at home by Seattle, 35-6, and Kansas City, 34-14. Those outcomes never were in doubt. Cincinnati has beaten both the Seahawks and Chiefs. It's fair to say the Bengals are better than both of those teams.

The one shining highlight to this lost season for the Ravens was their stunning upset of the Steelers last week. That was their Super Bowl as the Steelers are their most hated and bitter rival. Even Harbaugh is going to have trouble motivating his slew of backups to rise above their below average talent level for this matchup, their first road game in four weeks. Baltimore is 4-10-1 ATS the last 15 times after covering in their previous game.

Cincinnati will be going all out needing a victory to keep alive its hopes of earning a first-round bye. That would happen if the Bengals win and Denver loses to San Diego. This is an early matchup so the Bengals won't know the Chargers-Broncos result because that game kicks off three hours and 25 minutes later.

The Bengals have a strong recent history of taking care of business against lesser foes covering six of the past seven times versus sub .500 opponents. Cincinnati also has covered nine of its past 11 games versus AFC foes. The Bengals are far more talented and deep for the battered Ravens. Add in home advantage and a right situation considering how difficult it is for the Ravens to be sky-high a second straight week and this matchup has all the makings of a kill spot for the Bengals.
(Editor's note: Long-time Vegas pro Stephen Nover is beating the NFL for the 20th time in the last 22 years.)