Early money has been on North Carolina shrinking the line in this ACC title matchup. I believe that money is wrong. Clemson is the better team on both sides of the ball and is experienced in huge games, something the Tar Heels are not. This is North Carolina's first ACC championship game.

Clemson took advantage of the Tar Heels' lack of defense last year winning, 50-35, at home. Deshaun Watson accounted for seven touchdowns in that game and the Tigers rolled up 528 yards. True, North Carolina is much improved defensively from last season. But the gap still is larger than this spread.

North Carolina has won 11 in a row. Impressive, but its schedule wasn't that difficult. Two victories came against FCS opponents. The Tar Heels and Tigers did meet five common foes. Clemson allowed an average of 150 yards less per game than North Carolina did against those foes and nearly 11 fewer first downs per game than North Carolina did against those opponents.

The Tar Heels can't match Clemson's big game pedigree either. Clemson upset Ohio State in the Orange Bowl two seasons ago and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, in its bowl game last season. North Carolina played in lesser bowl games the previous two seasons.

I respect North Carolina's skill position players, but I like Watson better than any other college quarterback and I want him going for me in this game. Watson was the only player to pass for at least 3,000 yards and rushed for 756 yards. He also completed 70.4 percent of his throws, third-best in the nation.

The Tar Heels have failed to cover nine of the past 14 times as an underdog under Larry Fedora.