I'm fully aware of New England's strong history against the Colts during the past three years - a 4-0 record with four blowouts.

But I'm locking in at this price rang in the full belief Andrew Luck is going to play. And if Luck plays this price range is way too high given the Colts are home where they are 21-7-1 ATS (75%) during their last 29 games at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Luck is going to provide a huge spark and emotional lift after missing the last two games.

New England is the best team in the AFC right now. But the Patriots haven't played a difficult schedule drawing the Steelers at home, Bills on the road, Jaguars at home and Cowboys minus Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

The Patriots have faced just one good quarterback. Their rebuilt secondary hasn't faced a strong test in three games. The Colts have a lot of talent at the skill positions. Frank Gore is averaging 4.47 yards and has had 10 days to get his legs fresh as the Colts last played on Thursday giving them extra rest and prep time. New England ranks among the bottom 12 in rush defense.

Tom Brady is going to be without his blindside protector as left tackle Nate Solder suffered a season-ending biceps injury.