This is my strongest totals recommendation of the season so far. Indy's offensive struggles were well documented this past Monday night in clear view of a national audience - and the oddsmaker.

That's why I believe this over/under is short. The Colts' offense is much better than it has shown. The big thing to keep in mind is the Colts opened on the road in bad weather conditions at Buffalo. Then they faced the Jets. Those are two elite defenses. I would rank both Buffalo and the Jets as top-four defenses.

Now the Colts drop way down in class to face Tennessee, a team they averaged 34 points against last season. Andrew Luck has better weapons and more depth at wide receiver this season. The Titans lack the talent and personnel to put heat on Luck like the Bills and Jets did.

I have no doubt the Colts are going to put up their share of points. The matchup also sets up well for the Titans' offense, which is much improved with potential franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota. He's impressed me with his accuracy and poise. The Titans have underrated receiving weapons and Dexter McCluster provided an unexpected upgrade to Tennessee's ground game last week.

The Colts' defense isn't strong to start with and it's further weakened by a cluster injury problem in the secondary.

Given the caliber and state of Indy's battered defense, Mariota can hang with Luck in what should be a shootout.