Plus 1 1/2 runs is worth far more than normal in a pitching matchup of Clayton Kershaw against Gerrit Cole with an over/under of just 6. These might be the two best pitchers in the NL so the low total is completely justified.

If you would attach plus 1 1/2 to Cole's last 62 starts, the Pirates would be 50-12. That's a winning percentage of 81 percent.

The Pirates also have the fresher bullpen and better setup men than the Dodgers do.