Stephen Nover Free Sunday Play
(MLB) Washington vs. Miami,
Money Line: -104.00 Washington (Away)
Result: Loss
Both of these teams have been early-season disappointments. The Marlins are playing better now, but the Nationals have too many edges in this matchup.




The biggest advantage Washington has going is Gio Gonzalez, a Miami-area native who has owned the Marlins during his past five starts against with a 1.13 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 32 innings. The Nationals beat Miami in each of those past five starts. Lifetime, the left-handed Gonzalez is 6-2 with a 1.67 ERA in eight starts versus the Marlins going back to when he pitched for Oakland.




The key to stopping Miami is effectively dealing with Giancarlo Stanton, who is batting .153 against Gonzalez in 13 career at bats. The Marlins have lost seven of the past 10 times they've gone against a southpaw starter.




Gonzalez has dominated against under .500 teams. The Nationals are 33-13 (72 percent) the past 46 times Gonzalez has started against opponents with a losing mark.




The Marlins are minus injured left fielder Christian Yelich, arguably their second-best hitter, and don't have a strong bench. That factor is often magnified on Sunday when teams rest regulars.




Dan Haren goes for the Marlins. The 34-year-old Haren is clearly past his prime. Haren gave up four earned runs, including two homers, in six innings against the Phillies this past Tuesday in a 7-3 loss. The Phillies rank last in runs scored per game, are 29th in batting average and have smacked the third-fewest homers in the majors.




The Nationals know Haren well since he pitched for them just two years ago. Denard Span and Jayson Werth are a combined 12-for-28 (.428) against Haren, whose ERA has been above 4.00 each of the past three seasons.




Washington has been tough when losing the first two games of a series going 4-0. The Nationals also have won 17 of their last 21 Sunday games.

(Editor's note: In addition to this free selection, Stephen Nover has his April MLB Underdog Game of the Month going today and a top NBA play. Stephen is one of the hottest 'cappers in the country going 26-11-1 on his last 38 NBA plays for 70 percent!)