Betting Trend: The Rockets have covered the spread in 47 of their last 83 games (+9.60 units/11% ROI).

I'm backing Houston to cover the spread as road dogs against a tired Mavericks team.

Dallas has played at Phoenix, home vs. Utah and at Minnesota over the last five days, returning home for an in-state match with Houston. I saw a lot of experts fading the Mavs on Monday due to their lack of rest, but I wasn't interested in backing the turnover-prone Timberwolves to cover the 4.5-point spread. While I liked Dallas in that spot, I didn't like it enough to make the bet. However, I'm all in on Houston's side on Thursday.

The Rockets have had a pretty light schedule to this point, but there's a lot to like about how they responded on Monday, as they led from start to finish and demonstrated their dominance over the work-in-progress Spurs. Green is blossoming into one of the league's top scorers, and with Alperen Sengun inside, the Rockets have a superb one-two punch.

The Mavs are the popular bet at home on the heels of a statement win of sorts versus the Timberwolves, but the Rockets are well-rested and ready to punch up a weight class on Thursday.

*This is an excerpt from my free game preview on winnersandwhiners.com