North Dakota only won 12 games a season ago including 5 of their L7 regular season games it was with a very young team, and they did improve by 7 wins from the season prior. ND had 10 different players make starts last season so while they lost two starters they are much deeper than that.
Elon won 10 games 2Y ago and only 8 games LY. Both teams lost by 22+ in their season openers as Elon allowed Wake Forest to shoot 57%.

Home favorites playing gm #2 are 55% ATS vs a team playing their third.
ND is the better team and should cover this short -5 spread.