Lorenzen averages 18 outs per start and the Padres help pitchers extend their outings by 0.9 outs a start. Lorenzen has great numbers vs Padre batters and I like him to get a road win at SD tonight.

At the plate, the Phillies are much more reliable. Only four clubs are putting up more runs than then in the second half of the season, which is why Philadelphia has been consistently winning since then. Philly has also beaten the Padres in 9 of the last 11 meetings.