ARZ is #1 in country in effective FG% versus #3 in effective FG% defense. The difference is Arizona has done it versus the #123 set of defenses while Utah has done it versus the #351 ranked teams.
I like that Arizona was in a battle in their last game beating Creighton by only two to win the Maui. Having played two top-40 defenses helps them here and they should get the win and cover on Thursday night.