The Patriots offense wants to run the ball, ranking third in rush attempts and fourth in rush DVOA. And that's good news in this matchup, as the Chargers rank 31st in rush DVOA on defense.
The New England defense typically owns rookie quarterbacks, and even though Justin Herbert isn't playing like a rookie, Bill Belichick's seems to find a weakness with the rookie QB's and shuts down what they do best.

Anthony Lynn is one of the worst coaches in the league and he'll be outclassed here too. They're 2-7 in one-score games this season and 13-22 in one score games since Anthony Lynn took over in 2017. OUCH! Cam should play much better in the warm weather which he likes.

Let's play into that coaching mismatch and take the Patriots getting +1.5