We do have that sweet angle that says under specific circumstances when a team has been predominately an over team to bet them under. One of the main reasons this makes perfect sense and dollars is that the public prefers to bet games over. Of course the love it even more with a perceived over team. Hence the angle simply exploits market overreaction. It has gone under 396-513-14 with a 3.85 z-score.

Teams are much better off running against Tampa as they hold teams to 6.6 yards per pass which is .3 below their normal average. But they allow 4.9 yards per rushing attempt to teams earning an average 4.4. The problem is Tampa is without leading rusher Doug Martin, so cannot exploit that weakness.

The offensive line has not blocked particularly well and the Bucs have spent more time in passing mode because they have fallen behind in early and often. But against a pedestrian offense like Cleveland, they can run the ball more than normal.

Tampa gets 6.1 passing yards per attempt to teams normally allowing 7.4. Tampa second fewest snaps in league. Blowout to Atlanta still distorts overall defensive numbers of Tampa.

Hoyer was 9-of-12 passing with a touchdown (90.1 passer rating) when the Raiders brought additional pressure last week, compared to 10-of-16 (41.6 rating) with no blitz. So look for Tampa to play it safe which means Cleveland can nickel and dime more, but not get the big play.