NFC Total of the Year

We have a splendid angle that involves bad defensive teams based on points against and have been predominantly over teams that has gone over 510-394 for a z-score of 3.81. Obviously the knee jerk reaction is to bet such games over and the oddsmakers know that plus the struggling defense needs to only improve on terrible stats to make it a strong percentage plays.

Best of all Detroit has been far and away the top under team based on margin of cover. The only over was by just three in the opening week. Since then all four have gone under by an average of 15 points per game. This means the oddsmakers are well behind the much more defensive oriented Lions.

They have a heck of a front 4 and an offense not nearly as good as some think thanks in part to a QB whose production does not match his raw skill. These teams have similar offensive schemes. Former Saints quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi left this year to become Detroit offensive coordinator and play-caller. He tops the common links on offense and both defenses will be familiar with the style.