Yes most gamblers think a bad beat is any game that went down to the wire and they lost. After two weeks of our college football bets having our team give up not one but two late touchdowns destroy us, we make no apologies for finally getting a break for Denver getting the late defensive touchdown.

But the bottom line is Geno Smith with the game on the line is going to make mistakes especially when the defense knows he has to pass. So let me make this clear. A big part of the reason I am betting on the Patriots is because I know that Geno Smith is substantially more likely to make game-changing blunders such as a pick-six, while Tom Brady is much more likely to make game and cover-changing touchdown drives.

Last week went with Denver as big road favorites because QB mismatch. It is the same case here. While the QB has always been the most important position on the field, as the game continues to become more passing oriented, the gap is larger. Speaking of large gaps, it does not get bigger than this.

Only two of Jets six games have been on the road so far. Only two of six Pats games at home, so the statistical comparison will be distorted in favor of the Jets. In doing home/road splits Jets outscored by -19.0 road, New England +16.5 at home.

Bill Belichick has no problems running up score on the hated Jets. Coaching mismatches are much more important on short weeks.

Great teams carry chip on shoulder for a while, not just one or two games off a humiliating loss. Off rout to KC, the Pats won by combined 80-39 in two games since. Jets 0-5-1 against the spread (-8 points per game) fourth worst in NFL.

Jets at San Diego, home to Denver and at New England in 12 days. Yes New England also three-game in 12 days but two at home and not as tough as Jets. So the better coach and the more beneficial schedule has the brutal stretch benefitting New England.

The Jets have produced only 354 total yards in the past two games, averaging 3.1 yards per play. Yes lay the big lumber.