Fresh off a year in which everything went right, FSU is grossly overrated. They are a classic is a dichotomous spread and straight up team. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams.

They are 4-0 straight up but 0-3 against the spread by an average margin of (-12.6). Wake Forest is 2-4 straight up but covered three straight. Yes Wake Forest is facing their toughest foe, but their biggest loss was by 12 points.

FSU has no sense of urgency and they know if they go undefeated and likely with one loss, they will make the postseason. Jameis Winston certainly is not out of the Heisman race but the carrot of becoming only the second person in history to win two Heisman Trophies does not seem to be overly motivating.

FSU is good, but grossly overvalued off a season in which everything fell into place.