Home underdogs of five or more are 535-446. Keep in mind that is equivalent to being about a 13-point road underdog based on a six-point swing with home field being worth three points. Road underdogs of 13 or more are 195-166. The point being large underdogs have always been a nice percentage play.

We told you that the Colts are strong at QB and WR but have a ton of holes elsewhere. The Colts have a short week off the MNF meltdown and pay a Jaguars team that is playing their first game at home.

Yes Trent Richardson showed some signs of life, but a physical QB on a short-week, I look for him to flop big time. Remember his 79 yards was his best since acquired yet he still had a pair of fumbles.

The temperature will be in the mid-80s. That is not blistering hot, but still an advantage for the home team very used to the heat and it makes the short week even shorter.