Go against a starting pitcher who gives up .5 or fewer home runs per start, after a game in which the bullpen gave up four or more earned runs is 963-860, +119.2 units including +18.2 units this season. The units won is a bit lower, but the ROI even better when the pen gave up at least five earned runs 599-502, +109.2 units. In his last five starts Chris Tillman ERA and WHIP of 2.27 and 0.88 and 1.74 and 0.677.

Chicago is 8-15 in the last 23 Quintana starts. In their last 10 games Baltimore has a slugging percentage edge of .518 to .344. Baltimore is 10-4 overall.