Over the years we have deemphasized super systems because they often cancelled out proven metrics. But long before we had the computer to empirically confirm my observations, we always knew that streaks are much more fleeting and fluid in pitching and that oddsmakers overreact to such.

Going against home favorites of 150 or more with a starting pitcher who gave up two or fewer runs in each of his last two outings against starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or higher last five starts is +122.5 units including 5-0 this season (+8.3 units).