Indiana is a dichotomous spread and straight up team. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams. They are 52-22 straight up including 33-4 at home, but on a 4-21 against the spread, 1-6 at home. No problem, they face a Spurs team in a 17-game straight up winning streak in which eight of their last 10 were by 13 or more. They cannot make the line high enough as the Spurs are still 12-2 their last 14 against the spread, six times covering by at least 12.5.


Also, going with a rested road team against a home team in back-to-back and three games in four days is 530-445. The successful theory being that schedules generally benefit the home team. When one team is much more rested than the other, generally it is the road team playing back-to-back and three in four days. When the reverse happens, the normal home court edge is very much nullified and reduced. Long-time angles prove this causes an overlay.