If a road favorite of 5.5 or more is coming off a loss as an underdog and/or road loss, they continue to be a profitable bet since the 1980s. Recent years remain profitable, though admittedly not at the almost automatic rate of previous years.

The theory being that one quality team loses to another quality squad, then will take out their frustrations on an inferior team. Our scorephone clients have won with this for more than a quarter century and when we discovered it, the winnings went back as far as our database did: to 1980.

Please note that the original angle was 5.5 or more. We noticed that after the turn of the century, shorter-term we saw the system was better at -5. However, in retrospect that fine-tuning was a wash. It is much stronger at -5.5. If the line drops below 5.5, it still applies as the angle is based on using oddsmakers knowledge against them and not affected by square moves.

Our true line (previously known as outlaw line) is -8.5. The true line is what the line would be without public perception or bad line moves.