The Gators have won their last two by a combined nine points and play at a very good Vanderbilt team. Likewise, the Dores have been competitive in their losses, losing their last three by a combined 11 points.

The Gators are commencing being a dichotomous spread and straight up team. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams. At 25-2 straight up, they have lost 4-of-6 where it counts including two straight. This despite 19 straight wins outright, so one must lay a premium number to bet the Gators.

The Gators have looked very beatable of late. The defense that has been their calling card all season has taken a leave of absence, as Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn and Ole Miss have all shot better than 45 percent against UF over the last five games.

Vandy is holding teams to 7.2 points per game below their season average. They keep it close enough.