Toledo is one of the most fortunate teams in the country and is a dichotomous spread and straight up team. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams.

Toledo is 22-4 straight up including 12-0 at home. However, they are 1-5 against the spread their last six and 3-9-1 the last 13. Their last four wins have been by seven or fewer, yet of those four losses, three are by double-digits, the last by 21. They have a stunning 12 wins by single digits and 13th by 10. Ball State has nine losses by single digits.

Freshman laden teams peak late. Freshman guard Zavier Turner leads the Cardinals at 12.5 points per game and ranks seventh on Ball State all-time freshman scoring list with 300 points this year. Freshmen have accounted for better than 40 percent of Ball State minutes and scoring, and the Cardinals started three rookies for much of the year.