Our power ratings have this as a 10-point contest. Yes, the higher the point spread there is a small point of diminishing return on the score dichotomy. For example a 2.5 point difference on a pick ‘em is "larger" than 2.5 points on a double-digit spread. Still this is a substantial scalp.

Likewise, we have found month or partitions of the season systems to be less reliable than full-season ones. A big exception is February angles in college basketball. Fellow sharps have helped convince me that it does measure a few key metrics we love to exploit: oddsmakers overreaction to over and underachieving teams and bad line moves relative to perceived postseason motivations.

Double-digit February underdogs of less than 20 points giving up less than nine rebounds per game are 428-302 against the spread, certainly of statistical significance.

BYU is in a big letdown situation just two days after a huge win against Gonzaga. It is a pretty solid is a dichotomous spread and straight up game. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams.

BYU is 13-1 straight up at home, yet under .500 against the spread. Though just 3-6 straight up on the road, Portland is 7-2 where it counts.
Joe Duffy's Picks PORTLAND

Tonight's picks: Last Saturday Joe Duffy's Picks went 11-1. Yes, we have 12 premium plays and 11 of them won. Today we have an all-time record of 18 winning picks. This includes a Wise Guy play, which have not lost in nine days! Yes we ride some angles that have won for years and years and years. Yes, that is correct. I have been releasing picks publically since June 1, 1988 on the free scorephones across the country. It is the most winners I have ever had in one day. Ever. Do not be on the outside looking in with Joe Duffy's Picks