Yes it is true that we de-emphasize systems, but here is one that has held up for about 1,300 games and it impossible to ignore, especially since other factors corroborate it.

When a home team is coming off a win of 35 points or more it is a stunning 718-562-26 against the spread. When the win was by 37 or more, the winning percentage goes up, though units won a bit less because of fewer games at 609-459-24.

BG faces a heartbroken squad. The Ohio Bobcats football team is currently at this crossroads. Their top goal of winning the Mid-American Conference is no longer a realistic possibility, following a devastating 30-3 loss to Buffalo last week.

The passing game has been a big focal point after quarterback Tyler Tettleton threw for a career-low 126 yards and leading receiver Donte Foster suffering a back injury against Buffalo. Foster is questionable. With 51 catches for 728 yards, they have very little chance without him.

We cannot ignore that momentum angle exacerbated by Ohio hitting the road off a humbling loss.