We have said time and time again that the most overrated stat is gambling is straight up record. Home field advantage is worth three-points. Tennessee is .500 yet Houston has a .700 winning percentage but the oddsmakers are telling us that Houston is only one-point better (plus the three for HFA). This sets up a system that says to use the oddsmakers knowledge against them when a road team is a much smaller underdog than the deceptive SU records would suggest, go with said road team is 149-99 including 12-4 since Jan 1 of 2017.

Road teams off road loss are 320-235. When both apply, it wins 68 percent of the time