Wise Guy
(NFL) St. Louis vs. Cincinnati,
Point Spread: 9.00 | -110.00 St. Louis (Away)
Result: Loss
Underdog Game of the Year

We have a somewhat complicated angle that has to do with home favorites that are off a road game but not coming off a blowout win that is 77-17 against the spread. That elevated to GOY status, but I already loved the Rams.

Bengals 0-2 straight up off 8-0 start. Where have a seen a team get off to a blazing start only to get a flat tire and have the wheels come off? Oh that is right. The Bengals on a regular basis under Marvin Lewis.

Since 1991 teams got their first two losses after at least an 8-0 start are 1-4 against the spread. Of course not statistically overwhelming with only five games, but an 80 percent stat that confirms my expert observations when a letdown is likely to occur.

Not a fan of Andy Dalton. I am a show-me guy and Dalton has shown me he is not who you want once he gets punched in the mouth. It may be unprecedented me making a pick this big when there was some uncertainty about who is QB for one team.

Case Keenum offers a little more element of surprise and the short-time spike, but I would prefer Nick Foles, who should respond to the wake-up call of getting benched. Either way, nine points is much too high. This pick is less on the Rams as it is against the Bengals. The almost annual Bengals meltdown is underway.