The NFL bubble burst theory is not as jaw dropping as it is in college in part because it does not apply as often. We told you before last week in our huge Wise Guy named play winner on the Saints that we have said time and time again, the most overrated stat in handicapping games is straight up record. Atlanta was a deceptive 5-0. Now 5-1. Falcons three of their wins outscored foes in regulation by a combined six (plus an OT TD). Another was come-from-behind to injury ravaged Cowboys team.

We also have a huge angle that says to go with home underdogs off a huge blowout loss that is 78-44 against the spread. Now that Zach Mettenberger is likely starting, we should get a better line. But he is a talented QB who likely will play well short term once given new life.