If a road favorite of 5.5 or more is coming off a loss as an underdog and/or road loss, they continue to be a profitable bet since the 1980s.

The theory being that one quality team loses to another quality squad, then will take out their frustrations on an inferior team. Our scorephone clients have won with this for more than a quarter century and when we discovered it, the winnings went back as far as our database did: to 1980.

Please note that the original angle was 5.5 or more. We noticed that after the turn of the century, shorter-term we saw the system was better at -5. However, in retrospect that fine-tuning was a wash. It is much stronger at -5.5. If the line drops below 5.5, it still applies as the angle is based on using oddsmakers knowledge against them and not affected by square moves.

Nuggets worst offensive efficiency in the last 15 games getting 94.5 points per 100 possessions. Milwaukee second best defensive efficiency in the last 15 games allowing 96.8. Nuggets worst net rating in their last five games -20.1 easily worst. They are 0-5 in those games -13.8 sweat barometer in that span and 2-11 the last 13, one cover by .5 with six setbacks of at least 14.5 to the number. Net rating is -13 in those games.