PREMIUM
Wise Guy
(NFL) Miami vs. NY Jets,
Point Spread: 7.00 | 105.00 NY Jets (Home)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 7.00 | 105.00 NY Jets (Home)
Result: Win
This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.
This says that a team with a bad turnover rate and an inefficient defense is a very undervalued team to the tune of 1183-988-46 not including Sunday which turned a profit. Also underdogs of five or more off a loss of 31 or more are 50-26-4.
Also an underdog of four or more off loss of 28 or more and allowing 24 or more points per game is 61-29-6. The pressure is on the road favorites and again if a team is battling for the playoffs and outside the bubble, they are obviously not good at winning important games. The Fins maybe sneak out a win, but not a cover.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.
This says that a team with a bad turnover rate and an inefficient defense is a very undervalued team to the tune of 1183-988-46 not including Sunday which turned a profit. Also underdogs of five or more off a loss of 31 or more are 50-26-4.
Also an underdog of four or more off loss of 28 or more and allowing 24 or more points per game is 61-29-6. The pressure is on the road favorites and again if a team is battling for the playoffs and outside the bubble, they are obviously not good at winning important games. The Fins maybe sneak out a win, but not a cover.
