This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.

Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.

Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.

The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.

This says that a team with a bad turnover rate and an inefficient defense is a very undervalued team to the tune of 1183-989-46.

Colt McCoy is no savior but RG3 has been a disaster. This is much like the former team of McCoy where anyone not named Brandon Weeden is an upgrade. From a guy who actually did think RG3 would be better than Andrew Luck, I am here to tell you, McCoy is an upgrade. Skins cornerback David Amerson is back and that is big.

The Colts allow 4.6 yards per carry and Alred Morris will have a big day.