PREMIUM
Wise Guy
(NFL) Baltimore vs. New Orleans,
Point Spread: -3.00 | -105.00 New Orleans (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -3.00 | -105.00 New Orleans (Home)
Result: Loss
This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside. This says that a team with a bad turnover rate and an inefficient defense is a very undervalued team to the tune of 1183-986-46.
This is a great example of why we do not blindly bet this. Yesterday we went 2-0 with it, but it applies three times. The other was Jacksonville, but we had too much conflicting intel.
New Orleans pushed their home prime-time winning streak to 14 games as they throttled Green Bay 44-23 in Week 8. Yes they have struggled, but they and Seattle are probably the two teams with the biggest home/road variance.
Yes the are riding a shocking two-game home losing streak, but Drew Brees is a lot better than the mistake prone QB he has looked recently. They win by about six our metrics say.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside. This says that a team with a bad turnover rate and an inefficient defense is a very undervalued team to the tune of 1183-986-46.
This is a great example of why we do not blindly bet this. Yesterday we went 2-0 with it, but it applies three times. The other was Jacksonville, but we had too much conflicting intel.
New Orleans pushed their home prime-time winning streak to 14 games as they throttled Green Bay 44-23 in Week 8. Yes they have struggled, but they and Seattle are probably the two teams with the biggest home/road variance.
Yes the are riding a shocking two-game home losing streak, but Drew Brees is a lot better than the mistake prone QB he has looked recently. They win by about six our metrics say.
