The most overrated stat in handicapping is won-loss. Last three wins for Detroit by combined six points, two by one. They are very fortunate. Drew Stanton is not a big drop-off for Arizona, so the line we get is great.

Matt Stafford is not one to enjoy prosperity. They are playing well, which means he will come up short. Since the middle of last year the Cardinals have quietly been one of the best teams in the NFL.

Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie for Arizona are the best corners in the league. They will feast on the mistake prone Stafford. Arizona has winning quietly down to a science. Detroit has the inability to not enjoy prosperity to a science. The luckiest team in the NFL cannot keep depending on good fortune.