I know, I know... it's hard to feel great about the Miami Marlins winning a game right now, let alone winning by at least two runs or more. The Marlins are on a five-game losing streak, and they have also played 11 straight games since they last had a victory of more than one run.
If the Marlins offense is ever going to break through again, it should happen against Mike Minor who has a 6.46 road ERA, and the Reds have allowed at least four runs in all 10 of Minor's starts this season.
I expect Sandy Alcantara to carry the torch here. The Cy Young candidate had a 1.99 ERA and has only allowed more than two runs in one of his last four starts. Alcantara has also only allowed eight home runs this season in 149 1/3 innings, while Minor has allowed 15 home runs in just 51 1/3 inngs.
Overall the Marlins are 13-8 with Alcantara on the mound this year, and the Reds are 1-9 when Minor starts. For plus money, I will back Miami on the runline.