The Commanders, on a short week after a massive victory against the Eagles, now face a struggling Texans team at home. Washington's defense has taken a step forward lately and is very strong vs. the run. Their pass defense is still their weakness but they face Mills this week, who has struggled in his 2nd year. The Texans' pass defense had been their strong point, but has struggled lately, allowing a passer rating of 119 over their last 3 weeks.
The Commanders won't be passing much anyway. Washington hangs on to the ball better than any other team. We saw their RB dual threat run the ball in roughly three yard increments on 60% of their offensive plays last week, with a remarkable time of possession of 67% against the top team in the league. Expect a similar tactic against the Texans in Week 11. Houston is worst in the league in rush yards allowed, and near bottom dwellers in yards/attempt and total yards allowed. Opposing offenses run on the Texans on 65% of their plays this season to date, and it could be even more on Sunday.
The Texans have a very good rookie RB in Pierce but he really is their only option for rushing yards. They are poor in converting on 3rd downs, and rarely put up any points on the ground. The Commanders are 12th rushing yards allowed and improving, and give up very few rush TDs. Mills is off one of his better games, but still has a very average rating of 76 in his last 3 games.
Washington has covered 4 straight times as a favorite. I expect them to eat up both the Texans and the clock on Sunday, winning and covering on the road.