The Padres have had the Mets' number this year, victorious in 4 of 5 games, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Mets are also just 5-5 of late, and were swept by the Braves, before turning the tables on the Nationals. Game 1 of the Padres/Mets wildcard series features 2 fine veteran starters. Darvish is off a great season and was Pitcher of the Month in September. He has been remarkably consistent, pitching 6 innings or more in all but two of his 30 starts. He had 3 shutouts in September, and an ERA for the month of 1.55. He has beaten the Mets twice this year, allowing just 1 run in 14 innings. Darvish is not quite as good on the road.
Scherzer has had a light schedule, pitching just 4 times in September and October, so will be well rested. He was roughed up a bit in his last start vs. the Braves, but was very good in September with an ERA of 1.06 and an opposing batting avg. of .127. He is very good when pitching at home.
On offense the Mets have a solid edge. They are best in the league over the last two weeks, .291/.810 compared to the Padres' .253/.710. The Padres hit much better on the road, but the Mets are very tough on right-handers.
The elephant in the room is Darvish's very poor post season record (2-5, 5.18). Scherzer has been a good bet in post-season. The Mets have a pair of very hot top ten hitters over the last 2 weeks, and the best closer in baseball. In spite of Darvish's fine season and the Padres' strong record vs. the Mets this year, I am wagering on the home team. Mets to win.